Ukraine
Ukraine remains resilient despite the ongoing war, with its economy gradually recovering from deep contraction. In 2024, real GDP grew by around 2.9%, following a 5.3% rebound in 2023. However, growth is slowing, and forecasts for 2025 estimate real GDP expansion in the 2–3% range, with Moody’s projecting around 2.5% and the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowering its outlook to approximately 3.1%.
Economic overview
The economy is sustained by exports—especially in agriculture and energy—alongside domestic demand, reconstruction efforts, and service-sector adaptability. Reconstruction needs are estimated at an extraordinary scale of over USD 500 billion over the next decade. Economic stability is supported by macroeconomic discipline, despite challenges such as inflation (around 12–13%) and disrupted energy infrastructure.
Key economic indicators
Real GDP growth: ~2.9% in 2024; projected ~2–3% in 2025
Inflation: approximately 12–13%
Nominal GDP (2025 forecast): around USD 205–206 billion
GDP per capita (2025 forecast): approximately USD 6,260
Credit rating: Moody’s maintains “Ca” rating, signaling high risk but stable outlook
Business environment
The business climate remains volatile due to war-related risks, with limited private-sector capacity, energy vulnerabilities, and reliance on international aid. Still, resilience and reform efforts—coupled with negotiations on financial support from IMF and reconstruction funds—provide a foundation for economic stabilization and future recovery.
Key sectors for investment
Agriculture and agricultural exports
Energy, including reconstruction and green transitions
Infrastructure rebuilding and construction
Digital services and IT, banking and financial services showing adaptability
Critical minerals and potential new avenues under mineral resource agreements
Investment advantages
Demonstrated macroeconomic resilience amid immense challenges
Strong agricultural and export base
Strategic reconstruction and investment opportunities in infrastructure and energy
A population with skilled labor potential in IT and services
Conclusion
Ukraine offers a unique, high-stakes investment environment—marked by short-term challenges but long-term rebuilding and reform potential. With macroeconomic stability holding, sectors such as energy, agriculture, IT, and infrastructure present key entry points.
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