Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan is a resource-rich economy in Central Asia, heavily dependent on hydrocarbons but showing signs of cautious recovery backed by energy investments and infrastructure projects. In 2024, real GDP growth was officially reported at 6.3%, consistent with the previous year. However, IMF estimates suggest a slowdown to around 3.0%, driven by weak hydrocarbon exports. In the first quarter of 2025, real GDP growth rebounded to approximately 6.3%, with strong performance in transport, trade, services, and construction.
Economic overview
The economy is powered by natural gas exports, energy sector investment, and state-led infrastructure development. In 2024–2025, authorities focused on diversifying exports and supporting non-energy industries such as manufacturing (e.g., fertilizers, plastics, processed food, textiles). Inflation measures stabilized after moderate increases in 2024.
Key economic indicators
Real GDP growth: officially 6.3% in 2024; IMF-estimated 3.0% in 2024; Q1 2025 growth at 6.3%
Sector performance Q1 2025: transport & communications +11%, trade +10%, services +9%, construction +4%, agriculture +4%, industry +0.3%
Fiscal indicators: budget surplus of approx. 0.8% of GDP in 2024; public debt decreased to 3.6% of GDP
Inflation: moderated after 2024 increment; full-year average estimated around 3.8%
Business environment
The economy remains centralized and tightly controlled. While energy remains the cornerstone, gradual efforts are underway to diversify through manufacturing and infrastructure expansion. The business environment remains challenging, with limited private sector activity, investment inefficiencies, and high state involvement.
Key sectors for investment
Energy and hydrocarbons: foundational but facing external volatility
Manufacturing of non-hydrocarbon goods: fertilizers, textiles, processed foods, plastics
Infrastructure: transport corridors (e.g. Ashgabat–Turkmenabat motorway), logistics, and airport upgrades
Services and trade: expanding domestic demand, supported by retail and consumer turnover
Investment advantages
Consistent growth in key sectors despite external volatility
Ongoing public investment in transport and energy infrastructure
Emerging manufacturing capabilities linked to export diversification efforts
Constraints
Heavy reliance on hydrocarbon exports and exposure to price fluctuations
Centralized governance and weak business diversification
Inflation risks and structural challenges in macroeconomic transparency
Conclusion
Turkmenistan’s economy is anchored by energy exports and buoyed by infrastructure expansion, delivering notable short-term growth. While diversification is nascent, the development of manufacturing and transport sectors indicates long-term potential.
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