Predictability as the New Investment Value

Denis Karasyov, Vice President, Walton Global, CIS
Email: dkarasyov@walton.com

Predictability as the New Investment Value

In today’s economic climate, where familiar benchmarks are losing relevance and geopolitical and financial turbulence has become the norm, investors are redefining what reliability means. Where growth and aggression once dominated, predictability is now winning. It’s not just desirable anymore but it’s a strategic necessity.

And it’s easy to understand why. The world we’ve known for the past 50–70 years no longer exists. The global system has lost its structural footing. Europe’s economy is in recession. Emerging markets are overheated with political risk. China teeters between stimulating domestic demand and strict capital regulation. Meanwhile, the CIS countries continue to lose investor appeal under the pressure of sanctions and weak institutional safeguards. The world has changed, that’s a fact. And to navigate it, one must accept this new reality.

Today, the only market that retains both structural stability and transparency is the United States.

Why the U.S.?

The U.S. offers a strong, well-established legal framework. The rigorous regulation of financial institutions is no longer viewed as a barrier, but it’s a guarantee that the rule of law truly works. Whether the investor is from New York or Almaty, their capital is protected by a system.

The U.S. market remains transparent and highly structured. All transaction terms, schedules, tax regimes, everything must be disclosed to investors from the outset. This makes it possible to build long-term financial models with a high degree of certainty. For investors focused on multi-year goals, whether retirement planning or managing a family trust this is critical.

And perhaps most overlooked: accessibility. Despite myths about the U.S. market being out of reach for foreigners, it’s one of the most open markets in the world, both legally and technically. Foreign investors can buy real estate, securities, fund shares, benefit from tax exemptions (such as the Portfolio Interest Exemption), open accounts, and work through registered managers. The U.S. remains the largest, most structured, predictable, and financially resilient market on Earth.

CIS Investors: Between Illusion and Reality

Historically, CIS investors followed two models: aggressive, high-return schemes chasing short-term profit, or passive faith in local banks. Neither of these approaches work anymore.

The first fails because volatility kills planning and the market no longer forgives mistakes. The second collapses under the weight of inflation, currency risk, and poor capital protection in local jurisdictions. Anyone still betting on the "reliability" of a local bank is simply lying to themselves.

This is where the alternative begins: diversification through entry into stable international markets, above all, the United States.

Don’t Be Afraid

Too often, fear of the U.S. market’s “complexity” stops investors from taking the first step. In reality, the U.S. is a highly structured system that works like clockwork. It offers clear entry terms, transparent taxation, strict reporting standards, and a mature institutional environment. There’s no room for backdoor deals, just rules, systems, and professionals who can help you navigate them.

Predictability is the Only Rational Move

In a world where 80% of headlines carry financial risk, betting on predictability is the most reliable strategy. It’s the choice of a mature investor who values clarity over emotional thrill.

Yesterday, markets rewarded exponential growth. Today, they reward those who preserve. Capital now flows to those who choose instruments that stand firm when everything else falls apart.

Predictability is simply a forgotten form of an eternal value: stability. And that’s exactly what every investor truly needs.